Sunday, June 06, 2010

Tomas Kaberle and the Process of Elimination

According to TSN, at least two teams have expressed an interest in acquiring Toronto Maple Leaf Tomas Kaberle and upwards of five teams may be in the hunt.

In discussing the potential return, Leafs GM Brian Burke told the
Toronto Star, "We need to add a winger that can score, preferably with some size. And we need some secondary toughness. So those would be the areas we would try to address."

Given Burke's track record on following through on his proclamations (QV. his quest for Tavares, threatening to waive vets, promoting accountability while giving Toskala start after start) odds are the Leafs will move Kaberle for a defenceman and checking centre.

But let's give Burke the benefit of the doubt on this one and agree that the organization is looking for a winger that can score.

Sounds good, but who's out there?

In the spirit of my recent post on behavioural economics,
Amos Tversky has written about a decision making strategy called "elimination by aspects" or EBA. The idea here is that in order to make an informed decision, decision-makers establish an overall goal and then narrow the range of choices by aspects (e.g. scoring, age profile, cost to acquire). Any alternatives that do not match the selected aspect are eliminated.


Essentially, EBA is making a decision by eliminations.

So how many scoring wingers are there for Burke to chose from?

In 2009-2011, there were a total of 178 forwards that scored at a 0.51 pts/game rate...let's start to narrow down the pool:
  • 7 played less than 20 games (171)
  • 67 are centres (104)
  • 1 is a Leaf (103)
  • 16 score at 1.0 pts per game or higher and will cost more than Kaberle and what the Leafs have in the cupboard (87)
  • 12 are Unrestricted free agents (75)
  • 16 have no-trade or no-movement clauses (59)
  • 9 are 31 or older, which doesn't fit with the age profile that Burke often talks about (50)
  • 3 fit Burke's profile, but are simply not going to happen: Vanek, Cammaleri, Tavares (47)
Obviously, these 47 players aren't the absolute list. Players with No-Trade and No-Movement clauses get traded all the time (well, maybe not from the Leafs). Burke may also be ok with acquiring an older player, or the Leafs may move Kaberle as part of a package to get a player with a higher points-per-game ratio. There are also players on here who, for many reasons - price to performance ratio (Bobby Ryan, I'm looking at you), their relative value to their club, etc. - are going to be difficult, if not impossible, to pry away from their team. There may also be prospects the Leafs have in mind that didn't play enough games, or put up enough points per game in limited experience and slipped under my radar.

With that caveat out of the way, here's my list of 47 scoring wingers, one of whom just might be wearing the blue and white in the next few weeks. The list has been sorted by team.

PLAYERTEAMPOSGPGAPTS+/-PPG
1Bobby RyanANAR813529649 0.79
2Jussi JokinenCARL8130356530.8
3RJ UmbergerCBJL82233255-160.67
4Kristian HuseliusCBJL74234063-40.85
5Jakub VoracekCBJR81163450-70.62
6Rene BourqueCGYL7327315870.79
7Troy BrouwerCHIL7822184090.51
8Kris VersteegCHIL7920244480.56
9Patrick SharpCHIL82254166240.8
10T.J. GaliardiCOLL7015243960.56
11Brandon YipCOLR321181950.59
12David JonesCOLR231061610.7
13Chris StewartCOLR7728366440.83
14Wojtek WolskiPHXL80234265210.81
15James NealDAL

L

78

27

28

55

-5

0.71

16

Loui Eriksson

DAL

L

82

29

42

71

-4

0.87

17

Dustin Penner

EDM

R

82

32

31

63

6

0.77

18

DavidBooth

FLA

L

28

8

8

16

-3

0.57

19

DustinBrown

LAK

L

82

24

32

56

-6

0.68

20

Wayne SimmondsLAKR162440220.51

21

JustinWilliams

LAK

R

49

10

19

29

3

0.59

22

Antti Miettinen

MIN

R

79

20

22

42

-2

0.53

23Guillaume LatendresseMINL78271340-30.51
24Benoit PouliotMTL

L

53

17

11

28

8

0.53

25

Andrei Kostitsyn

MTL

L

59

15

18

33

1

0.56

26

Brian Gionta

MTL

R

61

28

18

46

3

0.75

27

DavidClarkson

NJD

R

46

11

13

24

3

0.52

28

Niclas Bergfors

NJD

R

81

21

23

44

-10

0.54

29

Patric Hornqvist

NSH

R

80

30

21

51

18

0.64

30

Matt Moulson

NYI

L

82

30

18

48

-1

0.59

31

Blake Comeau

NYI

R

61

17

18

35

-2

0.57

32

Kyle Okposo

NYI

R

80

19

33

52

-22

0.65

33

Milan Michalek

OTT

L

66

22

12

34

-12

0.52

34

ClaudeGiroux

PHI

R

82

16

31

47

-9

0.57

35

Radim Vrbata

PHX

R

82

24

19

43

6

0.52

36

Scottie Upshall

PHX

R

49

18

14

32

5

0.65

37

Ryane Clowe

SJS

L

82

19

38

57

0

0.7

38

Devin Setoguchi

SJS

R

70

20

16

36

0

0.51

39

David Perron

STL

L

82

20

27

47

-10

0.57

40

Brad Boyes

STL

R

82

14

28

42

1

0.51

41

David Backes

STL

R

79

17

31

48

-4

0.61

42

Steve Downie

TBL

R

79

22

24

46

14

0.58

43

MasonRaymond

VAN

L

8225

28

53

0

0.65
44Alexandre BurrowsVANL82353267340.82
45Michael GrabnerVANR20561120.55
46Mikael SamuelssonVANR743023>/s>53100.72
47Eric FehrWSHR69211839 18 0.57

12 comments:

  1. It would be pretty hilarious if Burke traded for Penner.

    Please let it be Ryan!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous4:09 a.m.

    Hopefully the draft comes fast cause i cant wait to see what happens. I hope he doesnt get Semin as i feel something not working with him and Wilson.I think he needs to get a first line center and have Kadri run the second line.Not sold on Mitchell sould get rid of him and get cheap 3 line checking center. He should target a top 3 forward also. Big list but i think hes stack piled with propects to be able to get these players.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anonymous4:12 a.m.

    Me too i hope its Ryan!Could be possible since he isnt signing and might know that Toronto will pay him good. Just like Kessel situation.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous7:43 a.m.

    God I hope you get Latendresse.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Anonymous1:34 p.m.

    you should get langenbrunner, consistent 25 goal player and burke chose him to captain team usa, burke modelled team usa the same style as the devils

    ReplyDelete
  6. Anonymous1:48 p.m.

    Don't worry, Latendresse is the last player that will be coming here...

    ReplyDelete
  7. Anonymous3:45 p.m.

    I think it will be Derek Roy.Close to Buffalo Kabbs would love that.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Well done, very interesting piece.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Anonymous6:52 p.m.

    NATHAN HORTOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON!!!!!!!!!11

    How the fuck did you not include him on your list!

    He'd be absolutely perfect for us.

    He wants to play in a "more traditional market"

    He grew up an hour away from Toronto.

    Good Canadian Boy!!!!!

    He plays RW AND C!!!!!!

    Big! Tough! Young! Scorer!

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Kabs would be reunited with McCabe in FLA

    FLA needs to fill the void left by J-Bouw

    No pressure + warm weather for Kabs in FLA

    Lots of Czech players to buddy up with in FLA.

    Nathan Horton + Mike Duco for Tomas Kaberle

    ReplyDelete
  10. Horton put up 0.9 points per game, I didn't include anyone over 0.85.

    ReplyDelete
  11. You didn't limit it by size, which is obviously something on Burke's list of "must haves."

    That would indicate you might want to drop any players under the size of 6' and 200 lbs.

    That would eliminate a number of players on that list.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Anonymous9:21 p.m.

    You also shouldn't be including Mikael Samuelsson if you're limiting the list to players 31 and younger. He was born in 1976, which would make him 33 turning 34 in December.

    ReplyDelete